Projections for the second half of 2025 anticipate a rise in Bitcoin
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105,354 and other cryptocurrency asset prices. This outlook is rooted in analyses by David Duong, Head of Global Research at Coinbase, who emphasizes the potential for growth within the U.S. economy alongside evolving macroeconomic conditions. While discussions of a possible recession were once more prominent, recent data suggest that such risks have diminished.
Mid-Term Positive Outlook Continues
David Duong predicts that the crypto markets might hit their lowest points in the first half of 2025, with expectations of new peaks in the latter half. The price movements seen in May were noted not to have altered the long-term target. The emergence of market-friendly policies in the American political sphere could heighten risk appetite, with a new legal budget package potentially taking effect by the end of summer.
David Duong: “Just months ago, we predicted a crypto performance bottom in early 2025 with a resurgence later that year. Despite recent increases in Bitcoin prices, we maintain our forecast, believing the most severe macro-level challenges are behind us.”
Long-Term Risks and U.S. Bond Market
Duong highlights potential major shifts in the interest curve of 10-30 year U.S. Treasury bonds due to the government’s spending plans. May saw U.S. long-term borrowing costs reach their highest in two decades. Rising bond rates could elevate borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially hindering economic growth.
David Duong: “If long-term rates escalate too swiftly, we might see volatility in stock and credit markets, potentially weakening confidence in the sustainability of the U.S.’s significant deficits.”
Shift to Alternative Assets and Safe Havens
Market fluctuations could result in uncertainty across financial assets and credit markets, increasing investor interest in value-retaining assets. Gold and Bitcoin might come to the forefront due to their liquidity and resilience.
David Duong: “In such scenarios, value-retaining tools like gold and Bitcoin could hold advantages over alternative crypto assets.”
Post-crypto market turmoil, shifts in investor risk perceptions could become key in price formation. The realignment of markets as an outcome of new U.S. budget policies might enhance upward momentum later in the year. Experts advocate that investors brace for potential volatility and reassess their financial risks.
Developments in the crypto asset markets are poised to be closely monitored in the second half of 2025. Particularly, U.S.-centric economic and political moves may continue to influence investor decisions. Bitcoin, along with other value-preserving assets, could take center stage during this period.
Several factors influence the future trajectory of markets, including U.S. economic growth trends, new budget packages, bond market development, and shifts in investor behavior, all directly affecting cryptocurrency prices. Investors are recommended to stay vigilant of market developments and prepare for rapid changes. In the broader perspective, liquidity needs and the quest for security might heighten interest in assets like Bitcoin.