Peter Brandt, the CEO of Factor LLC and a veteran technical analyst with over 40 years of experience, recently expressed caution regarding the upward trend of Bitcoin (BTC). Brandt suggested that Bitcoin may have reached its peak in the last bull market, pointing to its record high of $73,750 as a potential turning point.
In his latest analysis shared with CoinDesk, Brandt summarized the possibility that Bitcoin’s upward movement may have reached its peak and that the bull market could be over. This view contradicts his previous prediction in February, where he had forecasted that the rise from the bear market lows in November 2022 could continue until September 2025, with prices potentially reaching $200,000.
Brandt’s recent Bitcoin projection is based on the statistical concept of “exponential decay,” which refers to the process of reducing a quantity by a consistent percentage over a certain period. He noted that historically, Bitcoin tends to move within approximately four-year bull/bear cycles, often associated with block reward halvings. Each subsequent bull cycle tends to be about 80% less strong in terms of price growth compared to the previous one.
Referring to historical data, Brandt pointed out that if the 80% decline holds true, Bitcoin’s recent record high of $73,835 on March 14, 2024, aligns with historical exponential declines. This analysis also takes into account the observed diminishing returns in successive bull markets.
Brandt’s analysis also acknowledges Bitcoin’s past performance, including its rise to record levels above $73,000 in March, which was a significant increase from the lowest point of the bear market at $15,473 in November 2022 following the collapse and bankruptcy of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX.
Despite the insights from the exponential decay theory, Brandt added that past data cannot guarantee future results, especially since Bitcoin’s historical upward trends have been influenced by four-year block reward halvings. The most recent block reward halving occurred on April 20, 2024, reducing the reward per mined block from 6.25 to 3.12 BTC.
Brandt further stated that the general consensus in the cryptocurrency market is that the ongoing consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000 could potentially lead to an upward movement. The “Pre/Post Block Reward Halving” cycle structure suggests a potential peak in the range of $140,000 to $160,000 by late summer or early autumn 2025, which continues to be a significant driver for Bitcoin ownership.
However, Brandt remains cautious about the exponential decay theory and believes that more evidence is needed to determine whether this decay will impact the rising trend that began in November 2022. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $62,300, experiencing a 1.5% decrease over the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: The information in this article should not be considered as investment advice. Investors should be aware of the high volatility and risks associated with cryptocurrencies and conduct their own research.
