Bitcoin’s Price Movement and Market Expectations
Bitcoin’s price has recently surpassed $90,000, capturing the attention of market participants. However, its performance since the last halving remains weak compared to past cycles. Traditionally, significant price rallies have followed halving events, but as of 2024, such momentum has not yet been observed. Market experts emphasize that despite the price increase, the performance does not meet expectations.
Weak Performance Compared to Previous Cycles
In prior halving periods, Bitcoin 
$93,549 exhibited remarkable price increases. In 2012, it surged by 7,000%, in 2016 by 291%, and in 2020 by 541%, delivering substantial returns to its investors. However, since the 2024 halving, a similar upward trend has yet to commence. Analysts suggest that this situation may be attributed to Bitcoin’s maturing structure and the changing dynamics of the market.
The reduction in volatility may encourage broader adoption of cryptocurrencies among the masses. However, this very condition can also limit speculative price surges. New investors appear to be more cautious, while the influence of significant players in the market may be suppressing price movements.
Increased Impact of Economic Uncertainty
The halving period of 2024 is experiencing stronger macroeconomic headwinds compared to previous years. The average Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has tripled this year compared to past cycles. This rise leads to indecision in investment decisions, diminishing interest in volatile assets like Bitcoin.
Notably, trade tariffs implemented in the U.S. and the resulting global tensions have intensified pressure in the markets. While cryptocurrencies promise decentralization, they remain unable to act independently of global macroeconomic conditions. Experts highlight that much of the price pressure is largely externally driven.
Changes in liquidity flow and fluctuations in investor risk appetite also support this slow performance. The similar trend seen in digital assets outside of Bitcoin indicates that the overall market landscape is developing independently of the halving events.