The U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to sell 69,000 Bitcoin (BTC), equivalent to $94,744, with an expected value exceeding $6 billion. This significant sale is likely to have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. However, previous sales of a similar magnitude have resulted in different effects on the price of Bitcoin. Experts are currently analyzing various market data to understand the potential consequences of this sale. Glassnode is examining different datasets to assess the implications of this massive sale by the U.S. government on the market.
A comparison can be made with Germany’s Bitcoin sale in July 2024. The German government sold 56,000 BTC, but this did not cause a market collapse. Instead, the price of the largest cryptocurrency surged from $53,000 to $68,000. This suggests that large-scale sales do not always have a negative impact on the market.
However, historical evidence shows that not all sales result in positive outcomes. Glassnode has analyzed exchange net flows (30-day moving average) and the market cycle position to evaluate the impact of the U.S. government’s Bitcoin sale on the cryptocurrency market. Exchange net flows are considered important indicators for measuring selling pressure.
The impact of the upcoming Bitcoin sale by the U.S. government, according to Glassnode analysts, will depend on the phase of the cryptocurrency market cycle during the sale.
Currently, Bitcoin’s NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator is between 0.5 and 0.75, indicating a state of Euphoria/Greed in the market. This suggests that the effects of the U.S. government’s sale may be temporary and short-lived.