Strategist Chen Guo sees conditions for an A-share rebound, but expects a bumpy recovery

Originally reported by The Paper on November 10, 2026.

Chinese A-shares have the conditions for a rebound after months of volatility, according to Chen Guo, deputy director of research and chief strategist at Eastmoney Securities. Speaking to The Paper, Chen said measures to stabilize the market had eased concerns about a negative feedback loop in liquidity, while continued inflows into broad-market ETFs had provided support.

Chen attributed part of the earlier sell-off to crowded trading and overly optimistic expectations for AI commercialization and capital-spending growth. He said those expectations had since been revised downward, and that market prices had moved more sharply than underlying business conditions. In his assessment, A-shares were beginning to price fundamentals more normally. That does not mean sentiment will recover quickly, he cautioned.

Looking from the November 2026 interview through year-end and into early 2027, Chen said the environment appeared relatively favorable for an uneven upward move. He also warned that some investors might take profits after a rebound, potentially increasing disagreement in December. The outlook, he said, depended in part on relatively stable conditions in China and overseas.

For investors considering different parts of the market, Chen described a balanced, “barbell” approach: dividend-paying and stable-growth shares on one side, with more volatile opportunities such as AI applications, emerging growth businesses and potential turnarounds on the other. He presented this as his market view, not as a certainty about returns.

On AI, Chen distinguished the industry’s long-term prospects from expectations already reflected in share prices. He said growth in US AI capital spending could slow in 2027 and 2028, though future commercial breakthroughs could change that outlook. He urged closer attention to whether AI applications deliver measurable value that could support further spending on infrastructure.

Original report (in Chinese)

Further reading